Is Gold a Good Hedge For the Declining Dollar?

About five or six years I heard conservative radio show host Laura Ingraham ask economist Ron Insana what he thought of gold as an investment. (Like many other conservative radio shows, one of Laura’s sponsors at the time was a gold dealer.)

She laughed graciously when he replied, “Sure, everybody should keep some gold on hand to bribe border guards.”

Since then gold has gone up dramatically in price and gold dealers are running ads on many radio shows. Many people calling in to the two financial advice shows I listen to are asking about gold. Jewelry stores have big “We Buy Gold” signs in their windows.

Thanks to the financial crisis that began in the summer of 2007, many Americans and other people around the world are concerned about their futures. Americans in particular are concerned about the huge — and still growing — government deficit and how that appears likely to continue to drive down the value of the U.S. dollar.

After all, gold is traditionally the safe shelter people turn to in bad economic times. Its price is often highly correlated with political instability and inversely correlated with stock market performance.

It’s impossible to underestimate the emotional appeal of gold. Just go to any jewelry store in Thailand. You’ll see massive numbers of gold necklaces hanging on the wall. On a sunny day the huge amount of shining metal against the bright red walls is like a bright glare in your eyes.

Then realize that many of the women who’ll buy those necklaces have no other form of wealth or savings. All over the world, for billions of poor people, gold jewelry is the family’s entire wealth, on display. When they need cash, they hock the necklaces, chains, rings, bracelets, nose rings and ear rings at the local pawnbroker.

What many people forget is that gold has practical uses as well. Many people with bad teeth have gold fillings or crowns in their mouths.

Gold is also an excellent conductor of heat and electricity, and it’s very malleable and ductile. It’s used in the manufacture of semiconductors.

Its traditional role as a permanent store of value subjects it to political situations as well. Many times in the past thirty years, just as normal supply and demand factors were driving up its price, a central bank in Europe would start selling gold to drive the price back down. Even Switzerland, the country most associated with the gold standard, in recent years has sold some of its gold reserves.

This uncertainty makes trading gold as a commodity quite risky. It reached its historic high of $800 in 1980. Recently it’s been over $1000, but it’d have to reach about $2100 in current U.S. dollars to equal its 1980 price.

Nobody can say it won’t, but that doesn’t mean it will. It’s already tripled in price in the past five years.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *