Market Forecasting is the science and art of determining in advance when a market is most likely to change direction and may also include the likely duration of the anticipated move.
Market Analysis is all about taking current price data and applying technical analysis and/or fundamental analysis in order to determine what the market has already done and what it is doing now, and may or may not include Market Forecasting.
If Market Forecasting is included, the degree to which it is included will vary widely from one analyst to another. The method of forecasting may be as simple as anticipating the crossing of an indicator line or the reaction to the breakout of some level of resistance, or as sophisticated as to predict the very date when the market will likely change direction (new trend direction or the beginning/end of a trend correction).
The method of forecasting involved in my analysis of price data is very sophisticated and naturally proprietary. The science behind my work is based strongly in the mathematics of market cycles. Market cycles provide a roadmap to future price direction and the likely culmination of one move into a new one.
There are various approaches to analyzing price data for cycle footprints. These cycles expose themselves to oscillators and moving averages (indicators), the tracking of seasonality, and even the monitoring of various planetary bodies and the effect it has on the earth (produce and psychology).
A trader or investor can do quite a bit of market forecasting without having to delve deeply into the really technical aspects that I use for my clients. Here are some suggestions to help you get started in determining the trend and likely duration.
Start with the WEEKLY price chart.
Using a weekly price chart, where each price bar represents one trading week, locate the start of a new move. What that means is to find a clearly defined swing bottom or top where the new direction starts from.
Usually, prices tend to change direction at Fibonacci points in time. For example, look for a possible turn 3 bars later, then 5 bars later, than 8 and so-forth. If you are not familiar with Fibonacci, there is much written on this subject.
Keep in mind that not only can you do this for every clearly defined swing top or bottom, but that they will overlap. For example, you may note that a certain week is 8 weeks from a previous top/bottom, and also 3 weeks from the most recent top/bottom.
Never expect exact counts all the time. If you count out 55 weeks from a previous top/bottom, it is possible that it could occur on week 56. In fact, it is possible that it won’t occur at all. Be mindful of these pitfalls.
The key here is to get a ‘time period’ to focus on for a possible weekly turn. Then, turn to your daily chart and look for evidence of a possible trend change, such as your indicators being overbought or oversold and possibly looking to reverse. You can even apply the time-count approach to your daily chart and look for clustering within the weekly time frame you are analyzing for. Clustering is when you have two or more results pointing to the same time period (within a day or two) based on counting from different previous tops and bottoms. These are time periods you want to watch.
There are so many valuable market forecasting techniques you can use to help you predict future market turns. I have included 12 powerful methods in my Market Forecasting Secrets book. By adding Market Forecasting to your chart analysis, you can be ready at the right time to either plan new trades or exit existing trades. Another big bonus is that it helps lower your risk exposure, since there is no better place to enter a trade than near the very beginning of a new move.