Is it possible to make a full time living using the exchanges on Betfair?
The simple answer to that really depends on you as the individual. Online betting requires more than just an opinion on the outcome of any race. Being level headed and not chasing losses are just two important qualities needed to succeed.
There are so many factors the average punter needs to take into account before choosing whether a horse is worthy of any investment.
As favourites tend to win on average 33% of the time, punters tend to follow this fact blindly, often ignoring certain pointers from a horses past exploits. Just because everyone else is lumping their money on a favourite to win, does not make this a guaranteed winner. All you end up with is an overpriced favourite running no better than a donkey giving rides on Brighton beach. Although I doubt that would be the sort of ride in mind if planning a day trip to Brighton in any case.
Horse trainers are canny people who are well aware of any horses capabilities within their yard. The problem they face is the handicapper and how much extra weight they can be expected to carry if and when they win a race. The ideal scenario for any trainer is that all their horses win by a length or less rather than 10+ lengths, making the assessors job much more difficult. A horse may win by over 10 lengths and receive a 9lb penalty for doing so. But the question has to be, is the horse really that good, or was it because those finishing behind ran below expectations.
A trainer will put a well fancied horse in a twopenny race with one intention in mind. It is not there to win, the sole purpose being to reduce its handicap mark for a more lucrative race later in the season. They know there horse could win that £20,000 race in 3 months time if it were to carry 10lb less than its current mark.
How many times as a punter do you think the 5/4 favourite looks like a sound investment. It has the right sort of ground to run on. It is running over its best trip. Therefore you end up lumping on it like all the other sheep only to see your investment sinking quicker than an Audley Harrison comeback. But did you investigate which type of track it prefers? Is it better running left or right handed? Does it prefer a flat track or have its best runs been on undulating tracks? Is the stable currently in form? What percentage of the stables horses are running to their handicap mark?
Nothing is ever straight forward when assessing a favourites chance unless you are privileged enough to receive inside information. Remember this wisely. Just because the majority are following suit is not a signal for you to do the same.