By now, it should be abundantly clear to most everyone on the planet that the U.S. won’t exactly be leapfrogging out of this recession. In fact, the big concern now is that we’ll be “double-dipping” sometime soon and revisiting the ugly depths of this extremely stubborn downturn.
Ignoring, for the moment, that to double-dip you actually have to rise between dips – something our economy has not conclusively demonstrated – this business of returning to the bottom of the recession is something that, frighteningly enough, may have already taken place. Consider these dismal signs:
• A half-million new claims for unemployment benefits were filed in mid-August – that’s an increase of 12,000 from the previous week and the highest figure in over nine months (of supposed recovery). It was the fourth increase in jobless claims in the previous five weeks. So far, since 2007, the economy has lost 8.4 million jobs – hopefully, yours wasn’t among them. The recession keeps forcing employers to make miserable choices.
• Manufacturing in the beleaguered mid-Atlantic states, for just one sampling of the nation, has contracted unexpectedly for the first time since July 2009.
• The dollar has dropped against the Japanese yen to its lowest point in 15 years – so much for the alleged revival of our greenback.
• We’re still muddling through a bewildering season of declining home prices.
• Japan’s GDP growth has (virtually) halted in the second quarter of the year. Imagine a busy, creative country like Japan experiencing zero growth?
Sadly, we could go on. But you get the picture. No need to clobber you with more bad news, as abundant as that is. What we could really use right now are some useful tips in dealing with the recession. That’s whether the economy is actually guilty of double-dipping or not.
Here, then, are five such tips:
1/ Sell What They’re Buying. How solid is your work? Your business? Are you selling something that’s entirely dependent on people having discretionary income…that same discretionary income that’s now a fond memory? Or do you work selling stuff people actually need whether the economy stinks or not? Like medical help? Or groceries? It might make sense to take a good, long look at what you do for a living.
2/ Brace Your Portfolio with Gold. Let’s face it, most investors (somehow) remain gold-resistant. That is, they believe investing begins and ends with some form of paper or digits – like stocks, mutual funds, bonds and so forth. Unfortunately paper has laid a big, fat egg over the past decade while gold has absolutely blossomed. You can make a compelling case that gold is THE historical diversification for paper and hard times. The question is, are you safely diversified for what lies ahead?
3/ Adopt a Budget, If You Haven’t Already. Sometimes the most seemingly disciplined professional can have the least discipline when it comes to what he or she does in private. Particularly when it comes to budgeting home finances. It may seem like a desperate move, but budgeting can often save an astonishing amount of money. When we have to, we can live surprisingly simple lives.
4/ Stay Liquid Enough to Pick Up Bargains. This may seem to contradict the previous two tips, but think about it: When are you going to get another crack at the outrageous real estate, auto and retail sale prices going on today? Things may ultimately prove more valuable than paper money these days. Some of these discounts are simply unreal as companies unload their inventories at break-even prices (and even way below that) just to survive. This is once-in-a-lifetime stuff. Just be shrewd about it, don’t go overboard, and allow for just such a “discount-buy” category in your newly created budget.
5/ Don’t Assume The Stock Market MUST Return to Profitable Territory. Nothing says it has to. There’s no “stocks-can’t-stay-down-for-long” rule. Let’s see…the Dow was 10,788 back in May of 1999…and just 10,411 at this writing (in August of 2010). That’s a drop of 3.5% in 11 years. Needless to say, that’s not how you make money. Consider this: Just before the Great Depression, the Dow set a new high. So when did it revisit that high after the Depression? 25 years later, in November of 1954! “Anyone who bought stocks in mid-1929 and held onto them saw most of his or her adult life pass by before getting back to even,” observed analyst R. Salsman. Mr. Salsman was voicing what most Wall Street “gurus” will never tell you. What’s worse for Wall Street, starting now and over the next decade, baby boomers will be retiring and cashing in their stocks in droves. Who will replace them? No one, that’s who. Another giant baby boomer generation isn’t following on the heels of this one. So stocks and mutual funds are not – and will not be – the investment end-of-the-rainbow many so-called experts would have you believe. The recent massacre of Americans’ 401ks should be enough to tell you that.
Chin up. We can get through this tough time. We just have to keep our heads, be alert and be ready, willing and able to adapt.
During a recession, we can’t afford to keep all of our investment “guns” pointed in the same direction.