Oil Prices Will Remain At High Level

Oil prices established now in the world at the rate of $100-120/barrel are reasonable, said the head of “Lukoil” Vagit Alekperov. World’s oil consumption is growing, especially in South-East Asia. At the same time many deposits are almost exhausted that’s why price cutting is not expected. But the Russian authorities insist on planning the budget for a couple of years based on the price of $93-97/barrel.

“I’m sure that in the near future our country will remain the leading oil and gas provider in the world’s market”, – noted Alekperov in the interview for RBK-TV. Commenting the events on the oil market he explained that the situation became stable.

He also expressed confidence that Russia will be provided with the quality fuel for a long time, taking into account modernization programs, which Russian oilmen presented to the Department of Energy.

According to the plans which were published by the Ministry of economic development, in 2012-2014 price for Urals oil may be $93, 95, 97/barrel respectively. Analysts noted that the variant when the government can reconsider its forecast doesn’t threaten the market.

“It is highly possible that next year Federal Reserve System of the USA will start raising a rate, which will lead to the strengthening of dollar and drop in prices for most raw materials, – thinks an independent expert Aleksandr Razuvaev. – I don’t share the point of view of “Lukoil”. The reasonable price for today is $80-90/barrel”.

Steep drop in oil prices is not expected in the near future but their short-term reduction till $100/barrel for mixture Brent is possible, considers analyst of BCS company Andrei Polishchuk. The situation in the Middle East is now pushed to the sideline, OPEC will not undertake any drastic actions in the near future and additional demand may appear only through increasing import of China and India. “According to our assessment, zero budget deficit, when the income is approximately equal with the expenses, can be formed if oil price is more than $130/barrel, – thinks the analyst. – Budget is usually planned by conservative scenario, so its reconsideration is possible only if oil prices remain at the level of $120-130/barrel for a long time.

At the same time the manager of investment analysis department of “Univer” company Dmitri Aleksandrov considers that today we can speak only about the stabilization on the reached levels with the prospect of future gradual growth, if there is no abrupt correction. We can conjecture anything but nobody can give a certain forecast. Moreover we should expect considerable price range. There is also a risk because the budget is burdened with social programs, building projects, energy and transport modernization programs.

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