Diesel car is the best kind of personal transport for Russia for the near future, because there will be fuel deficit minimum three more years.
According to Ministry of Energy analysis, high-grade fuel deficit will continue till 2015, and winter diesel fuel deficit till 2014. Deficit of summer diesel fuel is not expected.
The reason of the deficit is the failure of modernization programs of oil companies. Lag in realization of investment programs is especially evident in such companies as “Rosneft”, “Gazprom”, “Surgutneftegaz”. Some refineries couldn’t produce oil products agreeable to technical regulation standards.
At the beginning of this year it was forbidden to sell “Euro-2” petrol (ban was removed at the end of May). Some refineries produced it but sold in other countries where there were no bans. Consequently there was less fuel in the country.
Ministry of Energy suggests some solutions. The first one is to postpone ban on petrol of low ecologic class. It will automatically increase fuel offer.
The second solution is to raise excise on fuel of low ecologic class and reduce them on high-quality petrol and diesel oil. It should be an incentive for refineries to modernize the production.
The last week of April there was shortage of gasoline 92 and 95 in Altai and other regions. It turned out that many refineries partially or completely stopped production because of scheduled repair. From March the government demanded to keep low release price, while the price on the world market increased. That’s why it was very profitable to sell cheap oil from Russia in other countries.
An informed source said that it was only an interim report of Ministry of Energy. In the final report “Rosneft”, “Gazprom” and “Surgutneftegaz” are not blamed for the crisis. One of the reasons is unplanned stopping of catalytic cracking installation in refinery of TNK-BP in Ryazan. Ministry of Energy suggested to big oil companies to sign a fixed schedule of oil refining modernization program, otherwise they will be fined.
The source in “Gazprom neft” said that they don’t disturb the program of modernization. The president of “Rosneft” Eduard Hudanatov said that the ending of modernization in 2015 will be a serious contribution into oil supply of the country. “Surgutneftegaz” didn’t comment anything.
Experts think that the main task of the government is not to allow the reduction of production volume. Russia doesn’t have special reasons for rapid transitions to high European standards. Suggested excise rising is a factual environmental tax. Hopefully it will not lead to increase in prices on the fuel stations. But budget profit will definitely increase. Perhaps the main task is budget filling and only then production modernization.